January 7, 2023 Weekly Investor Update

Life Bridge Capital Weekly Investor Update

January 7, 2023

The Latest in Commercial Real Estate (CRE), Economy & Markets

 

MARKET INDICATORS SNAPSHOT

 

WEEKLY

Mortgage Rate (30-Year Fixed): 6.48% (as of 1/5)

MONTHLY

Existing Home Sales: -7.7% (November 2022)

New Residential Sales: +5.8% (November 2022)

Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold: $471,200 (November 2022)

Construction Spending: +8.5% YoY (November 2022)

New Residential Housing Starts: 1.427 million (November 2022)

New Residential Housing Completion: 1.490 million (November 2022)

QUARTERLY

Homeownership Rate: +66.0% (3Q22)

Rental Vacancy Rate: +6.0% (3Q22)

 

Sources: NAR, BLS, Federal Reserve Bank, MBA

Note: Rates listed are estimates and may not reflect actual rates depending on term, sponsor location, and other factors involved.

 

TOP 10 STORIES OF THE WEEK

10. Chicago multifamily market will remain healthy in 2023

Class A multifamily development in Chicago will sustain its growth momentum this year, according to Todd Younger, fund and investor relations manager of Wingspan Development Group. Despite the economic headwinds across the country, the suburban Chicago market is poised to offer between 8% to 12% returns to multifamily investors. Younger also predicts that banks will provide more support to multifamily developers motivated to pursue projects as the renter population continues to increase and existing supply can’t keep pace with local demand.

 

9. New York metro set to deliver the most apartment projects 

Yardi Matrix is projecting the New York metro to set a record year for apartment deliveries in 2022, outpacing Dallas-Fort Worth from the top rank for the first time since 2018. Doug Ressler, manager of business intelligence at Yardi Matrix, opined that the construction industry is finally returning to pre-pandemic levels of activity despite labor shortages and higher material costs. In addition, Ressler predicts that half of the top 20 metros in the country that have increased their apartment building projects are expected to hit their five-year highs.

 

8. Little Rock’s MacArthur Park to gain apartment housing complex

Members of the Little Rock Historic District Commission last week gave the go-ahead signal for the development of a new three-story multifamily housing development near MacArthur Park, located at 1003 McMath Avenue. The Little Rock firm Rogue Architecture will work on the project’s architecture, while the Historic District Commission will oversee all construction and building alterations within the MacArthur Park Historic District.

 

7. Nord closes multifamily project deal

New York-based Nord Group announced its purchase of Edgewater Apartments, a 228-unit garden-style apartment community in Lake Jackson, 40 miles south of Houston. The acquisition of the 19 two-story residential buildings with clubhouse boasts of a 90.6% occupancy rate. Nord Group adds the property to its portfolio of Houston multifamily properties comprising 4,000 units.

 

6. Growth origination volume to rise in 2023 

MHN’s annual ranking of top mortgage banks puts CBRE on top of the list followed by KeyBank, Walker & Dunlop, Newmark and Berkadia. CBRE’s multifamily origination volume reached $87 million, almost twice the size of KeyBank’s. CBRE’s multifamily origination also represents 60% of its total originations ending in September 2022. Despite the slower financing activity in 3Q22, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association, most of the companies expect origination volume to grow in 2023.

 

5. HGI acquires Florida multifamily property

Harbor Group International (HGI) announced its purchase of Oak Enclave Miami, a 420-unit, mid-rise multifamily community in Miami Gardens, FL. The property, which was completed in 2022, was acquired for $113 million. In 2H22, HGI also purchased 10 multifamily properties, valued at $6.7 billion including transactions and dispositions. The company is expected to complete the management of the lease-up as soon as it finalizes ownership.

 

4. Idaho Falls gives green light for 23-acre plat for multifamily development

 The Idaho Falls City Council recently approved the final plat for a new multifamily development, The Parkway Apartments, located along Snake River Parkway north of Sunnyside Road. The 23-acre parcel will also have a 12-foot-wide asphalt pedestrian pathway in the development, which will be constructed within 24 months of the plat recording. In addition, a small portion of the east side of the property will be incorporated into the adjacent Heritage Park.

 

3. Rents in Jersey City increased nearly 50% in 2022

The National Rent Report by Zumper revealed a 50% increase in Jersey City’s rental rates, as a resulting effect of the 44% undersupply of apartments in New York City. However, data from RentCafe reveals that finding an apartment in New Jersey is just as difficult as in NYC, since potential renters have to contend with only one available unit for every 21 prospective renters, and the average apartment’s time-to-market is just 32 days.

 

2. Freddie Mac predicts 2H23 will be better for multifamily sector

Freddie Mac announced a positive outlook for multifamily fundamentals as its current trend indicates that it is on track for a more robust 2023 in the 2H. The group’s outlook report also indicated that rents are expected to stay positive and will grow at 3.9% although some moderation is projected. Additionally, multifamily demand is likely to rise as long as employment and household income growth remain strong.

 

1. Berkadia predicts more than 560,000 new apartment units this year

 According to Berkadia’s forecast, the US will expect around 565,200 new apartments in 2023, which will set a record for the highest number of annual apartment unit deliveries in the country in more than 20 years. The company attributes the growth to the resumption in new construction after the delay brought by the pandemic. However, despite the high number of completed units, Berkadia is still expecting national apartment occupancy rate to settle at 95% in 4Q23 and monthly rents to reach $1,827, up by 3.3% YoY. 

 

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