A Historic Surge in Apartment Supply
2024 is notable in the multifamily sector as an anticipated 440,000 new units are projected to come online nationwide amid ongoing construction of more than 900,000 additional units still in the pipeline. This influx represents a recalibration of the market and could lead to moderate rental rate growth in markets absorbing larger apartment deliveries.
Brokerage house CBRE tracks 69 markets nationwide and estimates 17 of those are expected to grow inventory by 7% or more in 2024 with construction deliveries peaking this year in most markets tracked. This supply shock will impact rental rate growth and CBRE is projecting an average of 1.2% growth across the 69 markets in 2024.
Despite this, CBRE is also projecting enough demand (renters) that the average occupancy rates will remain high (94%) despite the increased supply. These types of “mixed messages” within the economic landscape are more commonplace post-COVID as the country absorbs a “new normal” and markets absorb the pandemic-era influx of capital and demand.
Forecast Multifamily Vacancy Rates vs. Pre-Pandemic Averages
Decoding Market Signals
The projected adjustments in rent growth and a modest increase in vacancy rates might suggest a cooling phase in the multifamily sector. These indicators also underscore a resilient demand for multifamily living spaces buoyed by ongoing economic activities and a critical shortage of single-family homes. This juxtaposition of cooling rent growth against a backdrop of sustained demand highlights the importance of nuanced market analysis and strategic positioning for investors.
As we dissect these macro-economic indicators, the decline in multifamily construction starts beginning after 2024 offers a window into the market’s anticipatory adjustments to the supply wave and are likely to result in tighter supply over the coming years, thereby paving the way for a potential rebound in both occupancy rates and rent growth as the market stabilizes later this year and into 2025.
Historical & Forecast Multifamily Construction Starts
Strategic Implications for Investors
For multifamily investors, understanding the interplay of these macro-economic factors is more than academic — it’s a strategic imperative. The evolving market landscape characterized by moderated growth and a robust demand base calls for a recalibrated approach to investment. This means prioritizing geographic diversity, focusing on markets with strong underlying economic drivers, and aligning investment decisions with long-term growth prospects rather than short-term fluctuations.
Moreover, the current market transition presents an opportune moment for investors to reassess their portfolios, considering not only the geographical distribution of assets but also the demographic trends that drive demand in those regions. Investing in communities that cater to burgeoning sectors of the economy or demographic groups with growing housing needs can offer a strategic edge in a market poised for gradual recalibration.
Navigating Through Change
As multifamily investors, we find ourselves at a pivotal juncture, presented with both challenges and opportunities by the evolving market landscape of 2024. The anticipated historic surge in apartment supply, moderated rent growth, and shifting economic indicators necessitate a recalibrated strategy for navigating through these changes. Drawing upon the insights shared earlier, let’s explore a strategic blueprint designed to guide multifamily investors through the forthcoming market dynamics.
Focus on Demand-Driven Investment
With rent growth expected to temper in 2024, investors must hone in on demand-driven investment strategies that identify multifamily communities within regions that exhibit sustained or growing demand despite the broader market shifts. Factors such as demographic trends, job market strength, and the local supply-demand balance are always important indicators but are taking on a new level importance today.
Anticipate and Plan for Economic Shifts
The downturn in multifamily construction starts after this year signals a forthcoming period of reduced supply and underscores the importance of anticipation and strategic planning. Investors should remain vigilant to track economic indicators and market signals and be ready to adjust their investment strategies proactively. This may involve reevaluating existing portfolios, considering potential market corrections, and positioning for a recovery phase that capitalizes on tighter supply and renewed growth in occupancy rates and rent growth.
Leverage Long-term Perspectives
Given the expected market recalibration, adopting a long-term perspective becomes crucial. Short-term market fluctuations should be contextualized within broader economic cycles and long-term growth prospects. Investors should consider the long-term viability and growth potential of a market, focusing on assets and markets that offer sustainable returns over time. This long-term outlook can provide a buffer against temporary market downturns, ensuring resilience and sustained growth of the investment portfolio.
Strengthen Operational Efficiency
In a market characterized by moderated rent growth and increased supply, operational efficiency becomes a key differentiator. Owners should focus on enhancing the operational efficiency of their multifamily communities, optimizing property management practices, and investing in improvements that increase attractiveness to tenants. Strategies such as adopting technology-driven solutions, enhancing tenant amenities, and improving energy efficiency can enhance competitiveness and tenant retention, contributing to sustained investment performance.
Navigating through the anticipated changes in the multifamily market landscape of 2024 requires a strategic, informed, and adaptable approach. By focusing on demand-driven investments, anticipating economic shifts, leveraging long-term perspectives, and strengthening operational efficiency, investors can not only navigate through the forthcoming market dynamics but also position their portfolios for sustained growth and resilience. The path ahead may be marked by challenges but it also presents opportunities for those prepared to navigate it with strategic foresight and agility.
